To investigate the establishment and evaluation of the risk prediction diagram model of complications after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP).

The clinical data of 300 patients treated by ERCP from August 2021 to August 2022 were collected, which were divided into occurrence group(43 cases) and no group (257 cases), univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of postoperative adverse events after ERCP, and the predictive value of the model was analyzed by the receiveroperating characteristic curve (ROC curve).

Among the 43 patients with postoperative adverse events, 35 patients had acute pancreatitis, 5 infections, 2 bleeding, and 1 gastrointestinal perforation, which were significantly relieved after symptomatic treatment. The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the history of pancreatic disease, history of SOD, difficult intubation, ERCP operation time of 60 min, and two visits into the pancreatic duct were independent risk factors for adverse events after ERCP (P<0.05). The AUC of the risk prediction model constructed based on the above five indexes was 0.901, and the sensitivity and specificity were 86.0% and 93.8%, which were all higher than the single indexes in the model, and the degree of fitting of the risk prediction model was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ²=1.501, P=0.913).

History of pancreatic disease, history of SOD, difficultyin intubation, operation time of ERCP, and number of entry into thepancreatic duct are independent risk factors for postoperative adverseevents in ERCP.The risk prediction model constructed based on theabove five indicators has high predictive value for the occurrence of postoperative adverse events in ERCP, and can provide a theoretical basis for preventing the occurrence of postoperative adverse events after ERCP.